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Table 1 Posterior probabilities with 95% confidence interval of each of the three competing scenarios used for inferring the source population of introduced grass carp, and the type I and II errors for each competing scenario

From: Population structure, demographic history and local adaptation of the grass carp

Scenario Posterior probability (95% CI) Type I error Type II error
Malaysia
 Scenario 1 0.806 (0.782, 0.829) 0.021 0.009
 Scenario 2 0.014 (0.000, 0.110) 0.002 0.019
 Scenario 3 0.180 (0.081, 0.279) 0.007 0.022
India and Nepal
 Scenario 1 0.927 (0.913, 0.941) 0.018 0.012
 Scenario 2 0.068 (0.054, 0.082) 0.006 0.024
 Scenario 3 0.005 (0.004, 0.007) 0.008 0.014
  1. The best competing scenario is indicated in bold. Scenario 1, the introduced population originated from an admixture population of both the Yangtze and the Pearl River Systems; Scenario 2, the introduced population originated directly from the Yangtze River System; and Scenario 3, the introduced population originated directly from the Pearl River System