Fig. 3

Graphic representation of the ABC analysis for reconstructing the global spread of Phytophthora multivora. A Identification of the native population. The graphic on the left side shows the relative posterior probabilities estimated from linear discriminants of the summary statistics inferred from 1000 of 6 × 10⁶ simulated datasets closest to observed of the six competing scenarios. The diagram on the right side shows the supported scenario, its demographic events, change in the effective population size (colored segment), and corresponding relative time (right vertical scale). As shown in the diagram, results were computed with the three most diverse populations: Australia - AU, South Africa - SA, and New Zealand -NZ. Abbreviation with an additional “b” indicates introduced and established populations with limited effective population sizes; db- time of establishing. B Global spread. The graphic on the left side shows the relative posterior probabilities estimated from linear discriminants of the summary statistics inferred from 1% of 10⁶ simulated datasets closest to the observed of the six competing scenarios. The diagram on the right side shows the supported scenario and its demographic events as described above. As shown in the diagram, results were computed with all six populations: Australia - AU, South Africa - SA, New Zealand - NZ, Canary Islands - CA, Europe - EU, North America – NA. Abbreviations with an additional “b” indicate introduced and establishing populations with limited effective population sizes; db- time of establishing. Time is not scaled on the schemes